More on climate change and agriculture...

As a well timed but unintentional follow up to my last post about climate change and agriculture, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) recently released "Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 : The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States."

This report has profound implications for the Three Rivers RC&D region. As a region heavily dependant on agriculture, we would be wise not to ignore the changes that are already happening to the natural systems that support so much of our local economy. Global climate change is no longer an abstract academic debate, it has moved into the real world with real consequences.

“The report finds that climate change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so.” The news release from the USDA cites several specific findings pertinent to agriculture in the Three Rivers RC&D area:

• Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if precipitation decreases or becomes more variable.


• Higher temperatures will negatively affect livestock. Warmer winters will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals.


• Much of the United States has experienced higher precipitation and streamflow, with decreased drought severity and duration, over the 20th century. The West and Southwest, however, are notable exceptions, and increased drought conditions have occurred in these regions.


• Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2. Under projections reported in the assessment, weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicide applications.
  Horticultural crops (such as tomato, onion, and fruit) are more sensitive to climate change than grains and oilseed crops.


• Young forests on fertile soils will achieve higher productivity from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nitrogen deposition and warmer temperatures will increase productivity in other types of forests where water is available.


• Invasion by exotic grass species into arid lands will result from climate change, causing an increased fire frequency. Rivers and riparian systems in arid lands will be negatively impacted.


• A continuation of the trend toward increased water use efficiency could help mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources.


• The growing season has increased by 10 to 14 days over the last 19 years across the temperate latitudes. Species' distributions have also shifted.
  

“USDA agencies are responding to the risks of climate change. For example…The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs. USDA's Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the crop insurance program. “