More on climate change and agriculture...

As a well timed but unintentional follow up to my last post about climate change and agriculture, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) recently released "Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 : The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States."

This report has profound implications for the Three Rivers RC&D region. As a region heavily dependant on agriculture, we would be wise not to ignore the changes that are already happening to the natural systems that support so much of our local economy. Global climate change is no longer an abstract academic debate, it has moved into the real world with real consequences.

“The report finds that climate change is already affecting U.S. water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so.” The news release from the USDA cites several specific findings pertinent to agriculture in the Three Rivers RC&D area:

• Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if precipitation decreases or becomes more variable.


• Higher temperatures will negatively affect livestock. Warmer winters will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals.


• Much of the United States has experienced higher precipitation and streamflow, with decreased drought severity and duration, over the 20th century. The West and Southwest, however, are notable exceptions, and increased drought conditions have occurred in these regions.


• Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2. Under projections reported in the assessment, weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicide applications.
  Horticultural crops (such as tomato, onion, and fruit) are more sensitive to climate change than grains and oilseed crops.


• Young forests on fertile soils will achieve higher productivity from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nitrogen deposition and warmer temperatures will increase productivity in other types of forests where water is available.


• Invasion by exotic grass species into arid lands will result from climate change, causing an increased fire frequency. Rivers and riparian systems in arid lands will be negatively impacted.


• A continuation of the trend toward increased water use efficiency could help mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources.


• The growing season has increased by 10 to 14 days over the last 19 years across the temperate latitudes. Species' distributions have also shifted.
  

“USDA agencies are responding to the risks of climate change. For example…The Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Services Agency are encouraging actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration through conservation programs. USDA's Risk Management Agency has prepared tools to manage drought risks and is conducting an assessment of the risks of climate change on the crop insurance program. “

Global climate change and Minnesota agriculture

I was in Denver May 12-14 for Agriculture Research Service (ARS) Soil and Air Resource Management Air Quality and Global Change Research Customer/ Stakeholder Workshop. I had beeen invited by Dr. Abdullah Jaradat from the ARS research lab in Morris, MN. Dr. Jaradatalso happens to be a member of the Productive Conservation on Working Lands Technical Committee. The purpose of this workshop was to engage ARS stakeholders in the process of setting research priorities for the ARS in the coming five year period. ARS has identified global climate change as an urgent priority for research activities. Currently there is little conclusive data regarding the role of agriculture in greenhouse gas emissions, and there is a lack of knowledge on what effects climate change will have on agriculture. The focus of this workshop was placed on identifying specific topics that can be addressed by ARS in the next five years.

Attendees of this workshop included top ARS research scientists from across the country in addition to representatives from various Ag related businesses, industries, and farms. There were several scientists that were involved in the Nobel Prize winning International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was responsible for the report that Al Gore’s documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth” was based on. I was asked to contribute input to this meeting from the perspective of our work as a non-profit organization. Our work with PCWL, local food production, and sustainable agriculture offered a unique perspective in contrast to the other interests represented in the break-out sessions.

The Group discussion I participated in identified the following topics as research priorities:

Feeding the growing world population
Integrating Production knowledge with environmental impacts.
Effects of changing land use on Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, especially in respect to ethanol production.
Implications of bringing marginal land into production.
Biomass harvest and its effects on soil quality.
Life cycle analysis of GHG emissions for different cropping systems.
Best management practices for water use efficiency in agriculture.
Maximizing nutrient use efficiency in agriculture.
Better communication of ARS research results.
Multi-factor integration research - examine effects of multiple stressors on crop production.
Integration of current knowledge regarding global climate change and agriculture and analysis of variability of research results.
Extend and expand GRACEnet.
More emphasis on social and economic feasibility of management practices.

Key points I brought to the discussion from the perspective of Three Rivers RC&D included these research topics and issues:

Sustainable biofuel production – this includes examining effects of biomass harvest on soil carbon content, sustainable biomass harvest rates, and examining effects of crop residue removal on soil carbon content.
Nutrient Management – continuing to expand research on increasing efficiency of nutrient application, use of productive conservation crops to mitigate excess nutrients.
Landscape scale water management practices.
Practices for reducing Ag inputs for environmental and economic benefit.
Diversifying crop rotations.
Local and organic food production – this includes examining production practices, training new farmers and market development.

I also stressed the point that regardless of what practices their research show to have environmental benefits, if the practices are not economical, they will not be adopted on a scale that will offer significant benefit to reducing the effects of global climate change. Private landowners will play an essential role in the implementation of land use practices that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and sequester atmospheric carbon in the soil.

This focus of research on the role agriculture plays on global climate change and what effects climate change will have on agriculture presents a golden opportunity for agriculture in Minnesota. There already is significant research being conducted in Minnesota in the area of sustainable biofuel production. We are uniquely poised to take advantage of out excellent university research system, Ag industry, and abundant natural resources. We can research and implement solutions to the problems presented to our natural ecosystems while generating positive economic activity.