Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Oil and Agriculture

The Oil Drum posted a very relevant article (The Connection Between Food Supply and Energy: What Is the Role of Oil Price?) examining the relationship between American agriculture and it's reliance on petroleum. As everyone in the agriculture community is well aware, modern agriculture is dependant on plentiful petroleum in order to produce the outstanding yields that have become standard. In our region, corn yields of 100 bushels per acre would be considered a disastrous harvest. Field averages approaching and exceeding 200 bushels per acre have become the norm in many areas of the Midwest. According to the authors, sustaining these yields will be the challenge facing the next generation of American Farmers. Under post-peak oil, future generations of farmers will have to face increasingly scarce and costly energy inputs to their farms. How will future generations of farmers adapt under these proposed conditions. I don't think any one will argue American agriculture will face significant changes in the coming decades, but what will the rural Minnesota Landscape look like in 20 or 40 years?

What will Minnesota agriculture look like 20 years from now? Today's conventional farmers may see a landscape covered in quadruple-stacked genetically modified super crops, and the organic and sustainable agriculture proponents may daydream about fields looking like a patch-work of diverse crops in 5 year crop rotations as well as pastures grazed by cows and sheep. What will the land really look like in 20 years?

My money says it will be somewhere between these two extremes.

1 comment:

Seriously said...

Thanks for facilitating discussion and highlighting the article on The Oil Drum. Although the article was good and made me think, I feel some of the subsequent posts from readers are equaly as good. I am an elder for our local church and have been struggling with decreased membership and the increasing age of current members and many times have discussions on what to do. By and large all of us agree that it really boils down to population of our rural countryside. Many feel nothing can be done but I disagree and constantly remind others that the real challenge will be holding on as long as possible becuase eventually their WILL be a mass migration from our cities to the rural countryside if for no other reason than to grow food and survive. This article and the subsequent posts reinforce that logic. Thanks again and keep up the good work!!!